Arkansas Watch - Crowded primary races erode any one person’s following

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

— In early March, the candidates for both the Democratic and Republican parties have to file to run for office.

Primary season, especially on the Republican side, is looking extremely crowded for certain offices. On the other hand, few challengers seem to want to step up and take on the hard races.

It starts at the top, where incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln is about as popular as a colon polyp. She has managed to anger about everyone across the political spectrum except for the corporate lobbyists in D.C.

who continue to shovel millions her way. No less than 11 people have announced that they will compete for the chance to run against her in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. The latest entryis Congressman John Boozman who, despite his recent voting record, must be considered a strong candidate.

Besides Boozman, there are two candidates in the race who have out-polled Lincoln in every poll in which their names were included. They are former GOP chairman and State Senator Gilbert Baker of Conway, and the man who first exposed Lincoln’s weakness in the 2004 race, former State Senator Jim Holt of Springdale. Holt must be wondering whereall these guys that want the nomination now were in 2004. Back then only he and a few others knew what a stinker Lincoln was. Of all these guys, only Holt was willing to run against her when she was strong.

Boozman’s entry presents an interesting dynamic.

Boozman cuts into the support of both Holt and Baker in different ways. Baker was the insider’s favorite in the race before Boozman’s entry, so he takes a lot of that support away from Baker. Holt’s support is all grassroots, so Boozman’s insider strength does not affect Holt there.

On the other hand, both Holt and Boozman are from primary-vote rich northwest Arkansas. So Boozman cuts into Holt’s support geographically. Holt does havestrong support around the entire state, but in the primary, this is where the votes are.

Curtis Coleman and Conrad Reynolds are still in the race, as is nice-guy Fred Ramey and new entrant Randy Alexander.

The act of Boozman leaving his House seat prompted a slew of challengers to run to replace him. I hesitate to mention them all as they are still coming forward (Bernie Skoch was challenging Boozman even before the latter jumped into the Senate race).

In the meantime, it appears that the Republicans don’t even have a candidate against popular Governor Mike Beebe. They will have to find someone, if only because state law requires itfor them to maintain automatic ballot access.

That may leave room for a new party to do well. A recent Rasmussen poll showed that 35 percent of Americans believed that a third party was needed. In my view, the system is rigged against third parties right now (guess who did the rigging) and will be until we have run-offs for all offices, not just the local ones.

Anyway, the point is that the GOP does not currently have a candidate for Governor, but someone else does. The upstart and superconservative Constitution Party says that they have a candidate for Governor. This candidate was once the vicechairman of the Republican party of Arkansas. He was instrumental in the ballotinitiative that introduced term limits. He is currently mayor of a small town located in the central part of the state, but is term-limiting himself to two terms of office. That description is familiar to me, it sounds like they are talking about the charismatic mayor of Tull in Grant County, Frank Gilbert. Should be fun.

Editor’s note: Mark Moore is the lead writer for an Internet blog on matters pertaining to Arkansas culture and government, Arkansas Watch, and on Tuesday nights is the host of an Internet-based radio program, The Guide for the Perplexed.

He works at National Home Center, Bentonville, selling furniture and writes a weekly column for The Times of Northeast Benton County.

Opinion, Pages 4 on 02/17/2010